2026 hurricane season outlook indicates a relatively quiet season

The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 project 12 named storms and six hurricanes for the 2026 Atlantic season, with two storms expected to reach Category 3 strength; forecasters link the below-average outlook to an expected El Niño and cooler Atlantic sea surface temperatures.

The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2 released their 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, calling for below-average activity. The forecast projects 12 named storms and six hurricanes, and notes two could reach Category 3 strength or higher. Forecasters cite an expected El Niño and cooler-than-2023 Atlantic sea surface temperatures as key influences. The outlook differs slightly from Colorado State University's forecast but is aligned on below-average totals. Key outlook details: - The forecast calls for 12 named storms for 2026. - Six of those are expected to become hurricanes. - Two hurricanes are expected to reach Category 3 or stronger (winds greater than 111 mph). - Long-term averages are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes. - Forecasters attribute the lower outlook to an expected El Niño and more limited Atlantic sea surface temperature warmth than in 2023. - Analysts noted El Niño conditions could potentially reach strong or "super" levels, increasing wind shear that tends to inhibit Atlantic storm development. Summary: The outlook points to a quieter 2026 Atlantic hurricane season compared with long-term averages, while noting there is still room for variability. Atmospheric G2's meteorologist described limited downside risk and relatively low concern for a repeat of 2023 given the cooler sea surface temperatures. Other forecasting groups show slight differences and agencies may update forecasts as seasonal conditions change.