March jobs report likely shows labor market stabilizing before Iran war

Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys completed by March 12 suggest the March jobs report will show a relatively stable U.S. labor market; events since then, including higher gasoline prices and a lower Atlanta Fed GDP estimate, have altered the economic outlook.

The March jobs report is expected to show the U.S. labor market remained relatively stable in March. The Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys that inform the report were completed by March 12, before the Iran war’s effects were fully reflected. Since then, energy prices have risen and some real-time GDP estimates have been revised lower. Economists describe the job market as broadly stalled, with subdued hiring and low layoff rates. Key points: - The BLS surveys that underpin the March report were finished by March 12 and largely reflect conditions through that date. - Hiring activity was weak in February, with a reported hiring rate of about 3.1% of the workforce. - Job openings have declined and appear to be stabilizing, while layoffs remain at low levels. - Dallas Federal Reserve economists say the breakeven employment rate may be close to zero due to reduced immigration and rising retirements. Summary: Friday’s report is likely to show a relatively stable jobs market for March but does not capture later shifts tied to the Iran war and rising energy costs. The war and related market moves have already affected forecasts and consumer confidence, and how firms respond in coming months is undetermined at this time.