Global warming poses the greatest mortality risk in poorer countries.

A Climate Impact Lab analysis projects heat-related deaths will rise most in low-income countries by 2050, while some cold regions may see reductions in heat mortality.

New research from Climate Impact Lab quantifies where rising temperatures are likely to cause the largest increases in heat-related mortality. The analysis compares projected heat deaths across countries through mid-century and highlights large differences by income. The report notes that some cold or sparsely populated places could see net declines in heat-related deaths even as many populated, lower-income regions face increases. Key findings: - The analysis reports that poor countries could suffer up to ten times more heat-related deaths than rich countries by 2050, measured per capita. - Several Sahel countries such as Niger and Burkina Faso are projected to see increases on the order of about 60 additional deaths per 100,000 people, comparable to some current disease mortality rates in those places. - Some cold or thinly populated areas, including parts of northeastern Russia and certain high-income regions, are projected to register net declines in heat-related mortality. - The study also highlights an accelerated recent warming trend, with an average annual rate of about 0.35°C from 2015 to 2025. Summary: The analysis indicates that increases in heat-related mortality will be concentrated in lower-income countries, producing population health impacts in some places comparable to existing causes of death. Undetermined at this time.