Early U.S. COVID-19 death toll may be higher than official count.

A Science Advances study estimates more than 155,000 additional out-of-hospital COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. from March 2020 to December 2021, raising the likely total to over 995,000.

A new study published in Science Advances reports that the early U.S. COVID-19 death toll was higher than previously recorded. The authors estimate more than 155,000 unrecognized out-of-hospital deaths occurred between March 2020 and December 2021. That figure would raise the estimated total for that period to more than 995,000, compared with an official count of more than 840,000 at the time. Researchers link the gap to uneven reporting and strains on the death-investigation system. Key findings: - The study estimates more than 155,000 additional out-of-hospital COVID-19-related deaths in the U.S. from March 2020 through December 2021, about 15.6% more than the official count for that period. - Researchers calculated an estimated total above 995,000 COVID-19 deaths for that timeline, and note the CDC recorded the U.S. reaching 1 million COVID-19 deaths in May 2022. - The authors report possible geographic and sociodemographic inequities and a fragmented, underresourced death-reporting system, and say they used machine learning to help classify likely COVID-19 deaths outside hospitals. Summary: The study increases the estimated U.S. COVID-19 death toll for March 2020–December 2021 and highlights gaps in out-of-hospital death reporting. Authors point to geographic and sociodemographic disparities and to a strained, underresourced reporting system. Undetermined at this time.