Uncounted Covid-19 deaths in early pandemic likely exceeded 150,000, study finds

A study in Science Advances estimates up to 155,000 Covid-19 deaths were not recorded on death certificates in 2020–2021, representing about 16% of deaths in those years, with higher undercounts among Hispanic people and other people of color.

A new study published in Science Advances reports that many Covid-19 deaths in 2020–2021 were not recorded on death certificates. The researchers estimate as many as 155,000 additional deaths occurred outside hospitals during that period, about 16% of Covid-19 deaths in those years. The team used machine learning to analyze patterns on hospital death certificates and apply those patterns to deaths recorded outside hospitals. The authors say undercounting was concentrated early in the pandemic and was more likely among Hispanic people and other people of color and in parts of the South and Southwest such as Alabama, Oklahoma and South Carolina. Key findings: - The study estimates up to 155,000 additional Covid-19 deaths outside hospitals in 2020–2021, roughly 16% of deaths for those years. - Undercounts were more common among Hispanic people and other people of color and were concentrated in the pandemic's early months and in certain Southern and Southwestern states. - Researchers applied machine learning to patterns in hospital death certificates to reassess deaths recorded outside hospitals with causes such as pneumonia or diabetes. - The paper notes factors that likely contributed to missed Covid-19 on death records, including limited testing early on and differences in death investigation practices. Summary: The study indicates a substantial number of early-pandemic Covid-19 deaths were not recorded on death certificates and that those gaps were not evenly distributed across populations or regions. Undetermined at this time.