Social Security 2027 COLA forecast may rise as oil prices climb

Analysts link higher oil prices and February inflation data to an increased estimate for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, with one independent analyst raising her forecast to about 1.7% while the Senior Citizens League projects 2.8%.

Elevated oil prices and recent inflation data have prompted fresh estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment. Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, said geopolitical tensions are driving up oil prices and that this will raise her COLA estimates. Based on February government inflation data, Johnson now estimates a 1.7% COLA for 2027, up from 1.2% last month. The Senior Citizens League, a non-partisan senior group, maintains a separate forecast of 2.8%. Current estimates: - Mary Johnson, an independent Social Security and Medicare analyst, said via email that geopolitical tensions are driving up the price of oil. - Johnson's estimate for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment is about 1.7%, up from 1.2% last month. - The Senior Citizens League forecasts a 2.8% COLA for 2027, unchanged from its prior estimate. - Elevated oil prices may push overall inflation higher in coming months, which analysts say could affect COLA estimates. Summary: Rising oil prices have led one independent analyst to raise her 2027 COLA estimate while another group's forecast remains unchanged. How the official 2027 COLA will be determined depends on future inflation readings. Undetermined at this time.