Global warming rate nearly doubled after 2014, study says

A new analysis reports that global warming accelerated around 2015 and that the authors say the warming rate nearly doubled after 2014; other scientists have questioned aspects of the methods and remain cautious.

A new study published in Geophysical Research Letters reports an acceleration in the global warming rate beginning around 2015. The authors removed influences they describe as natural variability — including El Niño, volcanic eruptions and solar changes — and analyzed five established temperature datasets. They report the recent warming rate as about 0.35°C per decade compared with roughly 0.2°C per decade from 1970–2015 and say the trend nearly doubled after 2014. Some other researchers have raised questions about the methods and uncertainty in attributing the recent surge to forced climate change. What the study reports: - The authors report a "statistically significant acceleration" of global warming since about 2015 and state a 98% certainty across the datasets and methods they used. - They estimate recent warming at about 0.35°C per decade versus just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970–2015, and note that at the current rate studies project the 1.5°C threshold could be reached sooner. - Other climate scientists and statisticians cited in the coverage said the methods for removing natural variability leave room for uncertainty and that it remains unclear how much of the recent change is a forced response versus internal variability. Summary: The study presents statistical evidence that the global warming rate increased in the past decade and reports a near doubling of the trend after 2014. Undetermined at this time.