El Niño Is Returning and Could Raise Global Temperatures

Forecasters place the chance of a new El Niño at roughly 50–60% by early fall, and experts say its development would increase the likelihood of record-high global temperatures, possibly making 2027 the warmest year on record.

Scientists and forecasters say El Niño is likely to return later this year, following the strong 2023–24 event that temporarily pushed global temperatures near 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. La Niña conditions are currently in place, and agencies report a significant probability that La Niña will end by April and an El Niño will form by early fall. The development of El Niño would be expected to raise near-term global temperatures and could increase the chance of record warmth in 2027. Official global temperature tallies for 2027 will be compiled and released in early 2028. Key points: - Forecasters assess about a 50–60% chance of El Niño forming by early fall, with La Niña likely to end by April. - The 2023–24 El Niño temporarily pushed global temperatures near or above 1.5°C above preindustrial averages; 2026 is on track to be among the hottest years in recorded history. - Experts say a moderately strong El Niño would make 2027 a leading candidate for the warmest year on record; official 2027 temperature figures will be reported in early 2028. Summary: El Niño's likely return raises the probability of near-term record global temperatures and associated climate impacts. Monitoring and official temperature reporting will continue, with 2027 records expected to be released in early 2028.