Cancer diagnosis linked to higher conviction risk in Danish study

A large Danish analysis of about 370,000 people found that crime convictions fall in the first year after a cancer diagnosis but then rise starting two years later, averaging a 13% increase; researchers link the rise to income loss, reduced social support and changes in survival probability.

A recent study examined whether receiving a cancer diagnosis is associated with later criminal convictions. Researchers used Danish administrative records covering nearly 370,000 people diagnosed between 1980 and 2018 and compared them to a control group. The authors describe a pattern they call the "Breaking Bad effect," noting shifts in conviction risk after diagnosis. Key findings: - Convictions tended to fall in the first year after diagnosis, when treatment and medical care are most intensive. - Beginning two years after diagnosis, the likelihood of conviction rose and increased over about five years before stabilizing, with an average 13% higher conviction rate among patients compared with their pre-diagnosis baseline. - Most offenses reported were nonviolent (for example, theft and fraud), though the study also noted an increase in violent offenses at a smaller scale. - Researchers reported that the strongest links appeared where patients experienced larger income declines, lower survival probabilities, or reduced social support. Summary: The study presents evidence that a cancer diagnosis can be followed by a persistent rise in convictions for some patients and highlights economic and social factors associated with that rise. The authors suggest addressing the economic consequences of health shocks and the role of social support in explaining the pattern. Undetermined at this time.