SpaceX's nascent monopoly faces a durability test

Reuters reports SpaceX generated about $8 billion in EBITDA on $15–16 billion of sales last year, with Starlink accounting for roughly 50%–80% of revenue; rivals and regulatory and financial strains are raising questions about how long that lead can last.

SpaceX has outlined very large ambitions for its satellite business, including plans for up to one million satellites and talk of orbital data centers. Reuters reports the group generated about $8 billion in EBITDA on $15–16 billion of sales last year, with Starlink providing roughly 50%–80% of revenue and around 10 million subscribers. The company has been linked to a high implied valuation after a merger involving xAI, and an eventual public listing has been suggested. At the same time, competing constellations and government moves are changing the competitive and regulatory picture. Key facts: - Reuters cites about $8 billion in EBITDA on $15–16 billion of sales last year, with Starlink contributing roughly 50%–80% of revenue and about 10 million subscribers. - SpaceX plans up to one million satellites to serve as distributed cloud servers and has discussed the idea of a lunar factory to support those ambitions. - Amazon received U.S. approval to add about 4,500 satellites to its planned constellation, taking its total to just under 8,000; China is developing two low-earth-orbit networks with tens of thousands of planned satellites; OneWeb/Eutelsat and some European states are investing in alternatives. - Documents reported by Bloomberg show xAI posted a net loss of $1.5 billion for the three months to end-September 2025 and burned through about $8 billion in the first nine months of that year; investigators in multiple jurisdictions have examined the Grok chatbot's output. - Commentators and analysts note that using a $1 trillion merger valuation and attributing about 70% of that to Starlink implies a roughly $700 billion value for the unit; some analyst estimates cited in the article put near-term Starlink revenue at about $16 billion with $11 billion EBITDA, while other forecasts see higher revenue by 2030. Summary: SpaceX currently reports strong margins and sizable subscriber numbers, which underpin a dominant position in commercial low-earth-orbit broadband. However, competition from deep-pocketed rivals, state-backed programs, and recent financial and regulatory strains linked to the xAI merger create doubts about how long that dominance will persist. Undetermined at this time.