Ethiopia's tensions in Tigray may risk renewed conflict

People are leaving Tigray amid reports of troop movements, brief clashes, drone strikes and rising shortages, while disputes over territory and party status have strained the 2022 Pretoria peace deal ahead of June elections.

People are leaving Tigray as fears of renewed fighting grow. Prices are rising and banks have imposed daily cash withdrawal limits, contributing to shortages. The 2022 Pretoria peace agreement is fraying amid unresolved territorial and political disputes. Reports of troop mobilisation, brief clashes and drone strikes have been reported, and officials have levelled accusations involving Eritrea. Key developments: - Large numbers of people are reported to be leaving Tigray; shops and markets are seeing rising prices and banks have daily withdrawal limits of about 2,000 birr per person. - There have been reports of troop mobilisation in northern Ethiopia, brief clashes between federal forces and Tigrayan fighters in late January, drone strikes, and temporary suspension of flights to Tigrayan cities. - The national electoral board decided that disputed areas will vote independently in June; it also revoked the TPLF's licence, meaning the party cannot contest the upcoming elections, and the TPLF has split into factions. - The Ethiopian government has accused Eritrea of backing some Tigrayan forces and of involvement in unrest elsewhere; Eritrea denies these allegations and some claims remain reported rather than independently verified. - The African Union-brokered Pretoria accord of November 2022 ended major fighting but is described as unravelling, and observers say regional and international diplomatic leverage is more limited than in 2022. Summary: Renewed hostilities would most likely concentrate violence in Tigray and increase humanitarian strain, with possible wider regional implications. Elections are scheduled for June and recent electoral board decisions on disputed areas and party licences are immediate procedural steps; how these developments will affect tensions is undetermined at this time.