U.S. tariff turmoil leaves Treasury markets uncertain

The Supreme Court ruled against President Trump’s tariffs but did not decide on refunds, creating the prospect of roughly $170 billion in unsettled revenues; markets reacted with a softer U.S. dollar and renewed reassessment of Treasury yields.

The Supreme Court ruled against President Donald Trump’s tariffs and did not rule on whether refunds are due, reopening questions about trade policy and government revenues. The administration has announced a 15% replacement tariff that lasts 150 days, though timing and scope remain unclear. Markets moved in response, with the dollar weakening in Asia and U.S. Treasury yields showing mixed shifts as investors reassess fiscal and inflation risks. Legal and fiscal developments are likely to unfold over coming months. Key facts: - The Supreme Court ruled against the tariffs but made no decision on refunds, which market observers estimate could expose roughly $170 billion in unsettled revenue. - The administration has proposed a 15% replacement tariff that lasts 150 days, but details on when and on which goods it will apply remain unclear. - Financial markets reacted with a softer U.S. dollar and renewed pressure on Treasury markets as investors weigh fiscal implications and potential litigation. Summary: The ruling has reintroduced uncertainty around U.S. trade policy and public finances, with potential refund claims and replacement levies creating new fiscal questions. Undetermined at this time: the outcome and timing of lower-court litigation over refunds and the precise fiscal impact if refunds or alternative revenue measures materialize.